BJP to win four of five state poll, but will lose 108 seats in UP: C-Voter

According to the C-Voter survey, the saffron party is going to face stiff competition from both regional and national opposition, especially in Uttarakhand and Punjab

With the five state assembly polls due in early next year, an analysis and a projection by ABP-CVoter has revealed that this time BJP and its allies would have some tough time in the election fence. Winning big will be difficult for them.

Although the survey predicts the return of saffron power in Uttar Pradesh, BJP would lose around 100 seats of what it gained in the last state election. AAP and Congress would have a neck-to-neck fight in Punjab, whereas BJP and its ally is projected to win zero seats.  Neither Congress nor AAP would hit the majority mark.

The survey was conducted with a sample size of 1,07,193 people across 690 seats with a margin of error of 3% to 5% (+/-).

Uttar Pradesh

The C-Voter survey clearly indicates the narrowing of seat differences between SP and BJP. The survey projected the difference to be around 60 seats. BJP and its allies will manage to retain the majority. But they are slated to lose 108 seats and win around 217 seats. Samajwadi Party, BSP and Congress are expected to win 156, 18 and 8 seats.

Therefore, this year UP polls will be fought primarily between SP and BJP. SP will gain 31.1 % votes, BSP will earn 15.1%, and INC will get 8.9%. BJP will retain around 40.7% vote share.

Punjab

In Punjab, AAP and INC’s respective wins are unsure as both of them is expected to fall short of the majority mark, according to the C-Voter projection. BJP is projected to steer clear but negatively. They will win zero seats.

The seat projections for the major contesting parties are:

  • INC: 46 seats
  • SAD: 20 seats
  • AAP: 51seats
  • BJP:  0 seats

Meanwhile, Congress is expected to garner 34.9% votes and AAP would win a 36.5% vote share. SAD would win 20.6% votes and BJP 2.2% votes. The projected seat range for Congress is 42-50 and for AAP is 47-53.

Uttarakhand

Uttarakhand shows an interesting trend as Congress would come close to winning but fall short of the majority mark. The C-Voter results indicate that BJP might win the polls marginally.

BJP is projected to acquire 38 seats with 42.4% of the votes. Congress will win 32 seats and AAP and others zero.

Indian National Congress is projected to garner 36.3% votes and AAP 11.8% votes.

Goa

According to the C-Voter results, the vibrant coastal state of India would swing to the BJP’s side. They are expected to win 21 of 42 seat assembly. AAP will win five seats and earn a 23.6% vote share. Congress, who secured 17 seats last time, will win four and an 18.6% vote share. BJP would win 35.7% votes.

Manipur

In Manipur, the saffron party is en route to a satisfactory win by acquiring 25.29 seats.  According to the survey, the Congress will win 20-24, Naga People’s Front (NPF) will secure 4-8 and others 3-7 seats in the 60-member Assembly.

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