Opinion

With the global fertility rate declining, is the world on the verge of a population crash?

Various governments have tried various ways to limit the population boom for decades, but is there a natural check on the phenomenon with decreasing fertility?

Is over-population still a concerning issue, especially in countries like India and China? Before dwelling to answer this intriguing question, let us know some of the related facts and figures.

As of 2019 data, India’s 1.37 population is one-sixth of world’s 7.71 billion population. As per 2017 report of the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs, by 2030 India’s population will cross 1.5 billion and by 2050, it will be 1.64 billion.

By 2030, China’s population will cross 1.46 billion. Given this prediction, it was believed that by 2027, India will surpass China and become world’s most populated country.

Forced mass sterilization among steps in India to control population

This is a fact that population explosion is an intensely-debated issue of concern for a long period of time in India. Different governments since decades are trying different measures to control the population explosion.

As per a UN report in 2011, India’s share in world female sterilization has been 37%. Due to sterilization programs, the fertility rate came to 2.2 in 2016 from 3.4 in the 1990s.

However, forced mass sterilization was one of the most infamous incidents of the dark period of the 21-month-emergency. After the forced family planning, the topic of population control became a ‘political taboo’.

No Central legislation exists in India to control family size

In his 2020 Independence Day speech, PM Modi equated population control with patriotism.

Since Independence, 35 bills on population control have been presented in Parliament but none reached the voting stage. This means that even after 75 years since India’s Independence, there is no Central legislation for controlling family size.

It is imperative to state that India holds 16% of the world’s population with 2.45% global surface area and 4% global water resources. Given these figures, it is understandable for population control to be a matter of hot discussion and focus on measures to implement it.

Rising human population is making other species extinct

As far as the global scenario is concerned, the rising human population at this pace is making other species extinct. As per the national course of our planet, the rate of extinction is 1 per million species per year.

As per the estimate of American biologist Edward Osborne Wilson, at every hour three species are on the verge of extinction. Scientists claim that the boom of the global population is pushing the earth towards sixth mass extinction. It is, therefore, evident that on the international level as well, the population explosion debate is taking an aggressive shape.

Besides, over-population takes a huge toll on natural resources not only in India but in the whole world. It can very well turn into a demographic disaster.

Recent reports of decline in fertility rates equally concerning

Having stated these figures and the perspective it presents, there are, however, some contrasting but equally concerning reports pouring in recently. The reports state that in various countries around the world, fertility rate is declining rapidly.

It is, perhaps, for the first time in 12000 years that the fertility rate of homo-sapiens is on the decline.

In India, National Family Health Survey (NFHS) was made public on November 24, 2021. As per the data of the survey, it looks that over-population is no more a matter of concern as the population increase seems to have taken a pause. Does it mean that family planning is no more needed in the country and demographic disasters like population explosion is no more a threat?

For these interesting questions, there will be a detailed explanation in Part-II of the article, where it will also be decoded as what could be the consequences of the declining rate of fertility.

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Aasif Ganaie

Aasif is a journalist and a news enthusiast based in Jammu & Kashmir. He voyages to explore and uncover the stories More »
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